Publications

Edo Abraham

Associate Professor of Water & Control @TUD

Publications and open acccess preprints of my publications are listed below. Click on [Abstract] to obtain more information. Bibliographical information is available by clicking on [BibTeX].

You can search in the abstracts using the quicksearch box below. The official publication pages can be accessed through the link given [DOI]. If a preprint version is available it can be found by clicking on [URL]. Links to press coverage are listed under [Comment].

A list of my publications is also available on Google Scholar.

Anteneh G. Dagnachew Seleshi G. Yalew MTCO and Abraham E (2024), "A green hydrogen revolution in Africa remains elusive under current geopolitical realities", Climate Policy. Vol. 0(0), pp. 1-12. Taylor & Francis.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Africa's abundant renewable energy resources and vast land areas present an unprecedented opportunity for the development of a green hydrogen economy. Several countries in Africa have already initiated ambitious projects to establish green hydrogen economies, mainly targeting export markets in Europe. This perspective article explores the potential of green hydrogen in Africa and examines the challenges and risks associated with green hydrogen development on the continent. We believe that the role of hydrogen in the transformation of Africa should go beyond energy export and aim to harness its competitive advantage for various industries that require low-cost green hydrogen. We argue that prevailing extractive and geopolitical realities pose a major barrier in Africa’s path towards harnessing the full potential of green hydrogen for its development. To break this cycle, Africa must demand equitable partnerships, invest in technology transfer, and foster collaboration to drive a transformative green hydrogen revolution that is aligned with Agenda 2063s vision for a self-empowered and sustainable Africa. Green-hydrogen has the potential to provide affordable energy to transport and industry, accelerating sustainable development in Africa.The current resource development practice in Africa will constrain the continent’s ability to chart an independent course towards a sustainable green hydrogen economy.There is a need for clear regulation, incentives, and financial support for the adoption of green hydrogen technology.It is important that national governments create local demand which can stimulate new and sustainable jobs, and bilateral and regional collaborations to build and operate hydrogen infrastructure.Despite the high technical potential, Africa’s role in the global hydrogen market is hindered by limitation in access to finance, technology, infrastructure, and policy stability.Africa must assert itself on the global stage, demanding equitable partnerships and investments that foster technological transfer and knowledge sharing that benefit wider socio-economic development. Green-hydrogen has the potential to provide affordable energy to transport and industry, accelerating sustainable development in Africa. The current resource development practice in Africa will constrain the continent’s ability to chart an independent course towards a sustainable green hydrogen economy. There is a need for clear regulation, incentives, and financial support for the adoption of green hydrogen technology. It is important that national governments create local demand which can stimulate new and sustainable jobs, and bilateral and regional collaborations to build and operate hydrogen infrastructure. Despite the high technical potential, Africa’s role in the global hydrogen market is hindered by limitation in access to finance, technology, infrastructure, and policy stability. Africa must assert itself on the global stage, demanding equitable partnerships and investments that foster technological transfer and knowledge sharing that benefit wider socio-economic development.

BibTeX:

@article{AntenehG.Dagnachew2024,
  author = {Anteneh G. Dagnachew, Seleshi G. Yalew, Meron Tesfamichael, Chukwumerije Okereke and Edo Abraham},
  title = {A green hydrogen revolution in Africa remains elusive under current geopolitical realities},
  journal = {Climate Policy},
  publisher = {Taylor &amp; Francis},
  year = {2024},
  volume = {0},
  number = {0},
  pages = {1--12},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2376740},
  doi = {10.1080/14693062.2024.2376740}
}

van de Poel I, Secomandi F, Abraham E, van Uffelen N, Feenstra M, Liem C, Melnyk A, Rocco R and Inglés AM (2024), "White Paper: Design for Justice" Delft Design for Values Institute.

[BibTeX]

BibTeX:

@article{Poel2024,
  author = {van de Poel, Ibo and Secomandi, Fernando and Abraham, Edo and van Uffelen, Nynke and Feenstra, Marielle and Liem, Cynthia and Melnyk, Anna and Rocco, Roberto and Inglés, Aarón Moreno},
  title = {White Paper: Design for Justice},
  publisher = {Delft Design for Values Institute},
  year = {2024}
}

Moradvandi A, Abraham E, Goudjil A, De Schutter B and Lindeboom RE (2024), "An identification algorithm of switched Box-Jenkins systems in the presence of bounded disturbances: An approach for approximating complex biological wastewater treatment models", Journal of Water Process Engineering. Vol. 60, pp. 105202.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: This paper focuses on the development of linear Switched Box–Jenkins (SBJ) models for approximating complex dynamical models of biological wastewater treatment processes. We discuss the adaptation of these processes to the SBJ framework, showing the model's generality and flexibility as a class of switched systems that can offer accurate predictions for complex and nonlinear dynamics. This approach of modeling enables real-time data reconciliation from experiments and allows the design of model-based control strategies. Through the extension of the Outer Bounding Ellipsoids (OBEs) algorithm, the paper introduces an online two-stage parameter identification algorithm that effectively handles bounded disturbances for SBJ models. Using the OBE method relaxes the stochastic assumptions on disturbances, which may not be satisfied in practice, particularly for biological and environmental fluctuations. The proposed decomposed OBE algorithm separately identifies the switching patterns and parameters of linear submodels, conducting parameter identification in two distinct phases for input/output and disturbance/output submodels. The efficacy of this approach is shown via simulation results validated against both ADM1 and PBM models, demonstrating the proposed algorithm's capability to accurately predict outputs from different biological wastewater treatment models.

BibTeX:

@article{MORADVANDI2024105202,
  author = {Ali Moradvandi and Edo Abraham and Abdelhak Goudjil and Bart De Schutter and Ralph E.F. Lindeboom},
  title = {An identification algorithm of switched Box-Jenkins systems in the presence of bounded disturbances: An approach for approximating complex biological wastewater treatment models},
  journal = {Journal of Water Process Engineering},
  year = {2024},
  volume = {60},
  pages = {105202},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214714424004343},
  doi = {10.1016/j.jwpe.2024.105202}
}

Asefa T, Moreda F and Abraham E (2024), "A Roadmap to Address Addis Ababa’s Chronic Urban Water Supply is needed: a call for immediate action!". Thesis at: weAspire.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [URL]

Abstract: This brief addresses Addis Ababa’s chronic water problem and proposes potential solutions. Building on the initial article, the authors explore the issue’s magnitude and the various ad-hoc “solutions” implemented by residents. In summary, they stress the significant gap between water supply and demand, with only 40% of current demand being met. Resolving this issue demands a comprehensive approach involving government authorities at all levels.

This policy paper presents urgently needed measures as a strategic roadmap to comprehensively address the chronic water shortage in Addis Ababa. The proposed strategy advocates for diversified investment in various water sources, including surface water and groundwater conjunctive utilization, along with interbasin transfers. Emphasis is placed on the necessities for significant investments in water resource structures to meet both current and future water demand. The paper also recommends integrated and collaborative efforts among the administrations of Addis Ababa City, Oromia State and Federal governments. This collaboration can be achieved through the establishment of a new Water Commission, tasked with planning projects, securing funds, executing major infrastructures, and providing water governance across political and regional boundaries.

The policy paper advocates for proper tariffs to achieve full cost-recovery, crucial for financing operational costs and new infrastructures. It highlights the importance of curtailing water losses to enhance overall efficiency as a key component of the broader solutions. Additionally, the integration of innovative underground storage and recovery technologies is recommended for Addis Ababa, coupled with the establishment of a comprehensive institutional framework. These practices, proven effective in numerous global cities, serve as exemplary benchmarks for sustainable water management.</td> </tr>

BibTeX:

@techreport{weAspirePolicyBrief,
  author = {Tirusew Asefa and Fekadu Moreda and Edo Abraham},
  title = {A Roadmap to Address Addis Ababa’s Chronic Urban Water Supply is needed: a call for immediate action!},
  school = {weAspire},
  year = {2024},
  url = {https://www.weaspire.info/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/A-Roadmap-to-Avert-Addis-Ababas-Chronic-Urban-Water-Supply.pdf}
}

Sadak D, van de Giesen N and Abraham E (2024), "Increasing the Spatial Resolution in CLEWs Studies: An Integrated Modelling Approach for Water-Energy-Food Systems", In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts., May, 2024. , pp. EGU-14318.

[BibTeX] [DOI]

BibTeX:

@inproceedings{Sadak2024a,
  author = {Sadak, Derya and van de Giesen, Nick and Abraham, Edo},
  title = {Increasing the Spatial Resolution in CLEWs Studies: An Integrated Modelling Approach for Water-Energy-Food Systems},
  booktitle = {EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts},
  year = {2024},
  pages = {EGU-14318},
  doi = {10.5194/egusphere-egu24-16004}
}

Van Der Heijden T, Palensky P, Van De Giesen N and Abraham E (2023), "Closed-loop simulation testing of a probabilistic DR framework for Day Ahead Market participation applied to Battery Energy Storage Systems", In 2023 IEEE 32nd International Symposium on Industrial Electronics (ISIE). , pp. 1-6.

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

Abstract: In this manuscript, we test the operational performance decrease of a probabilistic framework for Demand Response (DR). We use Day Ahead Market (DAM) price scenarios generated by a Combined Quantile Regression Deep Neural Network (CQR-DNN) and a Non-parametric Bayesian Network (NPBN) to maximise profit of a Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) participating on the DAM for energy arbitrage. We apply the generated forecast time series to a stochastic Model Predictive Control (MPC), and compare the performance using a point and perfect forecast. For the probabilistic forecasts, we test two control strategies; 1) minimising the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) for making costs, and 2) minimising the expected value of the cost. We apply the MPC in a closed-loop simulation setting and perform a sensitivity analysis of the profit by changing the ratio between battery capacity and the max power, the cluster reduction method, and the number of scenarios used by the MPC. We show that the proposed framework works, but the approach does not increase profit compared to a deterministic point forecast. This can possibly be explained by the deterministic forecast capturing the shape of the price curve with less noise than a probabilistic forecast without enough scenarios. We show that the value of a good forecast becomes smaller as the charging time of the battery becomes larger, due to the battery being unable to exploit small price differences optimally.

BibTeX:

@inproceedings{VanDerHeijden2023,
  author = {Van Der Heijden, Ties and Palensky, Peter and Van De Giesen, Nick and Abraham, Edo},
  title = {Closed-loop simulation testing of a probabilistic DR framework for Day Ahead Market participation applied to Battery Energy Storage Systems},
  booktitle = {2023 IEEE 32nd International Symposium on Industrial Electronics (ISIE)},
  year = {2023},
  pages = {1--6}
}

Alloul A, Moradvandi A, Puyol D, Molina R, Gardella G, Vlaeminck SE, De Schutter B, Abraham E, Lindeboom RE and Weissbrodt DG (2023), "A novel mechanistic modelling approach for microbial selection dynamics: Towards improved design and control of raceway reactors for purple bacteria", Bioresource Technology. Vol. 390, pp. 129844.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Purple phototrophic bacteria (PPB) show an underexplored potential for resource recovery from wastewater. Raceway reactors offer a more affordable full-scale solution on wastewater and enable useful additional aerobic processes. Current mathematical models of PPB systems provide useful mechanistic insights, but do not represent the full metabolic versatility of PPB and thus require further advancement to simulate the process for technology development and control. In this study, a new modelling approach for PPB that integrates the photoheterotrophic, and both anaerobic and aerobic chemoheterotrophic metabolic pathways through an empirical parallel metabolic growth constant was proposed. It aimed the modelling of microbial selection dynamics in competition with aerobic and anaerobic microbial community under different operational scenarios. A sensitivity analysis was carried out to identify the most influential parameters within the model and calibrate them based on experimental data. Process perturbation scenarios were simulated, which showed a good performance of the model.

BibTeX:

@article{Alloul2023,
  author = {Abbas Alloul and Ali Moradvandi and Daniel Puyol and Raúl Molina and Giorgio Gardella and Siegfried E. Vlaeminck and Bart De Schutter and Edo Abraham and Ralph E.F. Lindeboom and David G. Weissbrodt},
  title = {A novel mechanistic modelling approach for microbial selection dynamics: Towards improved design and control of raceway reactors for purple bacteria},
  journal = {Bioresource Technology},
  year = {2023},
  volume = {390},
  pages = {129844},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960852423012725},
  doi = {10.1016/j.biortech.2023.129844}
}

de Vries D, Ramsing Thakur J, Martin V, Annor F and Abraham E (2023), "Investigating the potential role of pumped hydro storage in the Ethiopian energy system transitions to 2050 using OSeMOSYS", In EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts., May, 2023. , pp. EGU-14318.

[BibTeX] [DOI]

BibTeX:

@inproceedings{deVries2023,
  author = {de Vries, David and Ramsing Thakur, Jagruti and Martin, Viktoria and Annor, Frank and Abraham, Edo},
  title = {Investigating the potential role of pumped hydro storage in the Ethiopian energy system transitions to 2050 using OSeMOSYS},
  booktitle = {EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts},
  year = {2023},
  pages = {EGU-14318},
  doi = {10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14318}
}

Kaandorp C, Pesoa Moreno I, Pesch U, van de Giesen N and Abraham E (2024), "‘Commoning practices’ for energy justice? Perspectives on the heat transition in the city of Amsterdam", Energy Research & Social Science. Vol. 108, pp. 103369.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Decarbonisation of the built environment is needed to abate the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions. In the city of Amsterdam, multiple bottom-up initiatives have been initiated to reach these goals. In this paper, we explore how energy justice is reshaped by these initiatives on an urban scale. This is done by a case study on a platform that aims to connect, support and inform community energy initiatives. Based on ethnographic fieldwork performed between 2019 and 2022 on the heat transition in Amsterdam, we describe how relations between governmental bodies, businesses and urban residents are contested through this platform. Additionally, we describe how the platform shapes the access of citizens to decision-making spaces, financial tools and information to foster new forms of local autonomy, physical heating infrastructures and decision-making procedures. By analysing the motivations and activities for increasing users’ influence and ownership of resources with the notion of ‘commoning practices’, we show how activities of the platform do not only shape physical heating infrastructures, but also the decision-making processes for achieving low-carbon and renewable heating systems in Amsterdam. We, therefore, propose that the notion of ‘commoning practices’ can be used in future research to contribute to a dynamic understanding of how energy justice concerns are expressed and shaped in practice.

BibTeX:

@article{Kaandorp2024,
title = {‘Commoning practices’ for energy justice? Perspectives on the heat transition in the city of Amsterdam},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {108},
pages = {103369},
year = {2024},
issn = {2214-6296},
doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2023.103369},
url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214629623004292},
author = {Chelsea Kaandorp and Igor T. Moreno Pessoa and Udo Pesch and Nick {van de Giesen} and Edo Abraham},
keywords = {Decarbonisation of the built environment, Energy justice, Commoning practices, Community energy, Urban commons, Urban anthropology}
}

Geleijnse J, Rutten M, de Villiers D, Bamwenda JT and Abraham E (2023), "Enhancing water access monitoring through mapping multi-source usage and disaggregated geographic inequalities with machine learning and surveys", Scientific Reports. Vol. 13(1), pp. 13433. Nature Publishing Group UK London.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Monitoring safe water access in developing countries relies primarily on household health survey and census data. These surveys are often incomplete: they tend to focus on the primary water source only, are spatially coarse, and usually happen every 5-10 years, during which significant changes can happen in urbanisation and infrastructure provision, especially in sub Saharan Africa. In this work, we present a data-driven approach that utilises and compliments survey based data of water access, to provide context-specific and disaggregated monitoring. The level of access to improved water and sanitation has been shown to vary with geographical inequalities related to the availability of water resources and terrain, population density and socio-economic determinants such as income and education. We use such data and successfully predict the level of water access in areas for which data is lacking, providing spatially explicit and community level monitoring possibilities for mapping geographical inequalities in access. This is showcased by applying three machine learning models that use such geographical data to predict the number of presences of water access points of eight different access types across Uganda, with a 1km by 1km grid resolution. Two Multi-Layer-Perceptron (MLP) models and a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model are developed and compared, where the former are shown to consistently outperform the latter. The best performing Neural Network model achieved a True Positive Rate of 0.89 and a False Positive Rate of 0.24, compared to 0.85 and 0.46 respectively for the MaxEnt model. The models improve on previous work on water point modeling through the use of neural networks, in addition to introducing the True Positive - and False Positive Rate as better evaluation metrics to also assess the MaxEnt model. We also present a scaling method to move from predicting only the relative probability of water point presences, to predicting the absolute number of presences. To challenge both the model results and the more standard health surveys, a new household level survey is carried out in Bushenyi, a mid-sized town in the South-West of Uganda, asking specifically about the multitude of water sources. On average Bushenyi households reported to use 1.9 water sources. The survey further showed that the actual presence of a source, does not always imply that it is used. Therefore it is no option to rely solely on models for water access monitoring. For this, household surveys remain necessary but should be extended with questions on the multiple sources that are used by households. </tr>

BibTeX:

@article{Geleijnse2023,
  author = {Geleijnse, Jan and Rutten, Martine and de Villiers, Didier and Bamwenda, James Tayebwa and Abraham, Edo},
  title = {Enhancing water access monitoring through mapping multi-source usage and disaggregated geographic inequalities with machine learning and surveys},
  journal = {Scientific Reports},
  publisher = {Nature Publishing Group UK London},
  year = {2023},
  volume = {13},
  number = {1},
  pages = {13433}
}

[Abstract] [BibTeX]

BibTeX:

@article{Alloul2023,
  author = {Alloul, Abbas and Moradvandi, Ali and Puyol, Daniel and Molina, Raúl and Gardella, Giorgio and Vlaeminck, Siegfried E and De Schutter, Bart and Abraham, Edo and Lindeboom, Ralph EF and Weissbrodt, David G},
  title = {A novel mechanistic modelling approach for microbial selection dynamics: Towards improved design and control of raceway reactors for purple bacteria},
  journal = {Bioresource Technology},
  publisher = {Elsevier},
  year = {2023},
  volume = {390},
  pages = {129844}
}

Mulugetta Y, Sokona Y, Trotter PA, Fankhauser S, Omukuti J, Somavilla Croxatto L, Steffen B, Tesfamichael M, Abraham E, Adam J-P, et al (2022), "Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future", Nature Energy.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Aligning development and climate goals means Africa's energy systems will be based on clean energy technologies in the long term, but pathways to get there are uncertain and variable across countries. Although current debates about natural gas and renewables in Africa are heated, they largely ignore the substantial context specificity of the starting points, development objectives and uncertainties of each African country's energy system trajectory. Here we---an interdisciplinary and majority African group of authors---highlight that each country faces a distinct solution space and set of uncertainties for using renewables or fossil fuels to meet its development objectives. For example, Ethiopia is headed for an accelerated green-growth pathway, but Mozambique is at a crossroads of natural gas expansion with implicit large-scale technological, economic, financial and social risks and uncertainties. We provide geopolitical, policy, finance and research recommendations to create firm country-specific evidence to identify adequate energy system pathways for development and to enable their implementation.

BibTeX:

@article{Mulugetta2022,
  author = {Mulugetta, Yacob and Sokona, Youba and Trotter, Philipp A. and Fankhauser, Samuel and Omukuti, Jessica and Somavilla Croxatto, Lucas and Steffen, Bjarne and Tesfamichael, Meron and Abraham, Edo and Adam, Jean-Paul and Agbemabiese, Lawrence and Agutu, Churchill and Aklilu, Mekalia Paulos and Alao, Olakunle and Batidzirai, Bothwell and Bekele, Getachew and Dagnachew, Anteneh G. and Davidson, Ogunlade and Denton, Fatima and Diemuodeke, E. Ogheneruona and Egli, Florian and Gebresilassie, Eshetu Gebrekidan and Gebreslassie, Mulualem and Goundiam, Mamadou and Gujba, Haruna Kachalla and Hailu, Yohannes and Hawkes, Adam D. and Hirmer, Stephanie and Hoka, Helen and Howells, Mark and Isah, Abdulrasheed and Kammen, Daniel and Kemausuor, Francis and Khennas, Ismail and Kruger, Wikus and Malo, Ifeoma and Mofor, Linus and Nago, Minette and Nock, Destenie and Okereke, Chukwumerije and Ouedraogo, S. Nadia and Probst, Benedict and Schmidt, Maria and Schmidt, Tobias S. and Shenga, Carlos and Sokona, Mohamed and Steckel, Jan Christoph and Sterl, Sebastian and Tembo, Bernard and Tomei, Julia and Twesigye, Peter and Watson, Jim and Winkler, Harald and Yussuff, Abdulmutalib},
  title = {Africa needs context-relevant evidence to shape its clean energy future},
  journal = {Nature Energy},
  year = {2022},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0},
  doi = {10.1038/s41560-022-01152-0}
}

Kaandorp C, Miedema T, Verhagen J, van de Giesen N and Abraham E (2022), "Reducing committed emissions of heating towards 2050: Analysis of scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation", Applied Energy. Vol. 325, pp. 119759.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Infrastructure for heat provision in the built environment needs to change remarkably to support lowering carbon emissions and achieving climate mitigation targets before 2050. We propose a computational approach for finding a mix of heat options per neighbourhood that minimises cumulative carbon emissions between 2030 and 2050, referred to as committed emissions, while at the same time adhering to technological constraints at both the household and neighbourhood scales. To establish this approach, we integrated bottom-up heat demand modelling at neighbourhood scale with a mixed-integer non-linear optimisation problem. Nine scenarios with different pathways for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation in electricity generation were considered and applied to three neighbourhoods in the city of Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The results show that (i) the committed emissions are ten times lower between 2030 and 2050 in scenarios in which ambitious measures are taken for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation in electricity generation, (ii) only in these ‘ambitious scenarios’ low temperature heat systems, such as heat pumps and low temperature heat networks, are optimal solutions for minimising committed emissions, (iii) if less ambitious insulation and decarbonisation measures are taken, high temperature heat options can be part of the heat mix with lowest committed emissions, and (iv) the minimum heat density for low temperature heat networks is not always achieved, creating risks for carbon lock-ins when applying these heat networks. Our results clearly indicate that pathways for the retrofitting of buildings and the decarbonisation in electricity generation need to be taken into account jointly when designing renewable and low-carbon heat systems to optimally reduce carbon emissions towards 2050 and reduce future carbon lock-ins.

BibTeX:

@article{Kaandorp2022,
  author = {Chelsea Kaandorp and Tes Miedema and Jeroen Verhagen and Nick van de Giesen and Edo Abraham},
  title = {Reducing committed emissions of heating towards 2050: Analysis of scenarios for the insulation of buildings and the decarbonisation of electricity generation},
  journal = {Applied Energy},
  year = {2022},
  volume = {325},
  pages = {119759},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261922010315},
  doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119759}
}

van Lagen G, Abraham E and Esfahani PM (2022), "A Bayesian Approach for Active Fault Isolation With an Application to Leakage Localization in Water Distribution Networks", IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology. , pp. 1-11.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: This article proposes an active fault isolation method for application to water distribution networks (WDNs) to localize leaks. The method relies on the classification of observed outputs to a discrete set of hypothetical faults. Due to parametric uncertainties, the outputs are random vectors that follow unknown probability distribution functions (PDFs). The output PDFs corresponding to the considered faults are approximated using smooth kernel density estimation (SKDE). They are used to calculate the posterior probability of each hypothesis, given the observed outputs, by applying Bayes’ rule. The difficulty to classify observed outputs to the right fault comes from the overlap between output PDFs. An active algorithm is introduced that proactively minimizes the joint overlap between the output PDFs by designing optimal control inputs. Due to physical limitations on control inputs and depending on the intensity of uncertainties, full separation, and hence fault isolation, cannot be guaranteed for a single observed output. Therefore, subsequent observations are used in an iterative framework, where the posterior probabilities of the previous time step serve as the prior probabilities for the next time step. The method is applied to locate leaks in a benchmark WDN for different levels of uncertainty in customer water demand and leakage magnitude. Improvements in the performance are observed in comparison to the best considered passive method from literature.

BibTeX:

@article{Lagen2022,
  author = {van Lagen, Gert and Abraham, Edo and Esfahani, Peyman Mohajerin},
  title = {A Bayesian Approach for Active Fault Isolation With an Application to Leakage Localization in Water Distribution Networks},
  journal = {IEEE Transactions on Control Systems Technology},
  year = {2022},
  pages = {1-11},
  url = {https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9880532},
  doi = {10.1109/TCST.2022.3201334}
}

Khan Z, Abraham E, Aggarwal S, Ahmad Khan M, Arguello R, Babbar-Sebens M, Bereslawski JL, Bielicki JM, Campana PE, Silva Carrazzone ME and others (2022), "Emerging themes and future directions of multi-sector nexus research and implementation", Frontiers in Environmental Science. Vol. 10 Frontiers Media.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Water, energy, and food are all essential components of human societies. Collectively, their respective resource systems are interconnected in what is called the “nexus”. There is growing consensus that a holistic understanding of the interdependencies and trade-offs between these sectors and other related systems is critical to solving many of the global challenges they present. While nexus research has grown exponentially since 2011, there is no unified, overarching approach, and the implementation of concepts remains hampered by the lack of clear case studies. Here, we present the results of a collaborative thought exercise involving 75 scientists and summarize them into 10 key recommendations covering: the most critical nexus issues of today, emerging themes, and where future efforts should be directed. We conclude that a nexus community of practice to promote open communication among researchers, to maintain and share standardized datasets, and to develop applied case studies will facilitate transparent comparisons of models and encourage the adoption of nexus approaches in practice.

BibTeX:

@article{Khan2022,
  author = {Khan, Zarrar and Abraham, Edo and Aggarwal, Srijan and Ahmad Khan, Manal and Arguello, Ricardo and Babbar-Sebens, Meghna and Bereslawski, Julia Lacal and Bielicki, Jeffrey M and Campana, Pietro Elia and Silva Carrazzone, Maria Eugenia and others},
  title = {Emerging themes and future directions of multi-sector nexus research and implementation},
  journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
  publisher = {Frontiers Media},
  year = {2022},
  volume = {10},
  url = {https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2022.918085/full},
  doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2022.918085}
}

van der Heijden T, Lugt D, van Nooijen R, Palensky P and Abraham E (2022), "Multi-market demand response from pump-controlled open canal systems: an economic MPC approach to pump-scheduling", Journal of Hydroinformatics., 06, 2022.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: Participation in demand response (DR) has been explored for many large energy-using assets based on day ahead electricity markets. In this manuscript, we propose the use of multiple electricity spot markets to enable price-based DR for open canal systems in the Netherlands, where many large pumping stations are used for flood mitigation and control of groundwater levels. In the new strategy for pump-scheduling, we combine the day ahead and intraday electricity markets to be used in a hierarchical receding horizon economic Model Predictive Control (MPC). We formulate the decision problem as a Mixed-Integer Quadratic Problem (MIQP), to be solved to near global optimality. A cost-potential analysis was performed for multiple market strategies and the automatic Frequency Restoration Reserves (aFRRs), using actual market and water system data. We show new insights into the trade-off between CO2 emissions and operating cost, the difference between the German and Dutch markets, and temporal changes in market conditions due to renewable energy integration. We observe that the German energy market is rewarding DR more than the Dutch equivalent, due to the higher renewable energy market penetration. The proposed multi-market strategy leads to a cost decrease of 10 and 16\% in the Netherlands in 2017 and 2019, respectively. When applying German market scenarios, we found a cost-saving potential of 56 and 50\% in 2017 and 2019, respectively. The cost-saving potential for the aFRR market was found to be up to 12\% in the Netherlands and 28\% in Germany, through a conservative analysis. The results suggest that the proposed control system, optimising costs over the day ahead, intraday and possibly the aFRR markets, is profitable compared to the current strategy in both the current and future electricity market.

BibTeX:

@article{10.2166/hydro.2022.018,
  author = {van der Heijden, Ties and Lugt, Dorien and van Nooijen, Ronald and Palensky, Peter and Abraham, Edo},
  title = {Multi-market demand response from pump-controlled open canal systems: an economic MPC approach to pump-scheduling},
  journal = {Journal of Hydroinformatics},
  year = {2022},
  note = {jh2022018},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2022.018},
  doi = {10.2166/hydro.2022.018}
}

Aydin BE, Oude Essink GH, Delsman JR, van de Giesen N and Abraham E (2022), "Nonlinear model predictive control of salinity and water level in polder networks: Case study of Lissertocht catchment", Agricultural Water Management. Vol. 264, pp. 107502.

[Abstract] [BibTeX] [DOI] [URL]

Abstract: A significant increase in surface water salinization in low-lying deltas is expected globally due to saline groundwater exfiltration driven by rising sea levels and decreasing freshwater availability. Sustaining fresh water-dependent agriculture in such areas will entail an increased demand for fresh water flushing. Unfortunately, the flushing of surface water is not operationally optimised and results in excessive use of scarce freshwater. To meet the increased demand for flushing, while minimizing the need for diverted freshwater, new operational designs are required. This paper presents a novel network model based approach that uses De Saint Venant (SV) and Advection Dispersion (AD) equations to optimize multiple objectives on water level and salinity control using a Nonlinear Model Predictive Control (NMPC). The resulting NMPC problem is solved with a receding horizon implementation, where the nonlinear program (NLP) at each iteration is solved using state-of-the-art large scale interior point solver (IPOPT). We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach and compare it to the traditional fixed flushing for a representative Dutch polder. Firstly, the approach is shown to be capable of controlling the water level and salinity level in the polder. Secondly, the results highlight that the network of canals, which were originally made for drainage, could not be made sufficiently fresh with current intake capacity. A simple design approach was used to identify appropriate new capacities for two of the gates that allow optimal flushing to guarantee the required water level and salinity constraints.

BibTeX:

@article{AYDIN2022107502,
  author = {Boran Ekin Aydin and Gualbert H.P. Oude Essink and Joost R. Delsman and Nick van de Giesen and Edo Abraham},
  title = {Nonlinear model predictive control of salinity and water level in polder networks: Case study of Lissertocht catchment},
  journal = {Agricultural Water Management},
  year = {2022},
  volume = {264},
  pages = {107502},
  url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037837742200049X},
  doi = {10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107502}
}

Steffelbauer DB, Deuerlein J, Gilbert D, Abraham E and Piller O (2022), "Pressure-Leak Duality for Leak Detection and Localization in Water Distribution Systems", Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management. Vol. 148(3), pp. 04021106.